Greece Again

I read this morning's intelligence of a bargain -- we'll come across how long it lasts -- alongside interest. Here's a video telephone commutation alongside Rick Santelli on the discipline on CNBC (I can't appear to larn the embed to work, thence you lot receive got to click the link.)

My principal thought: what most the banks? The infinitesimal Hellenic Republic reopens its banks, it's a fair bet that every mortal inwards Hellenic Republic volition instantly caput to the banking concern too larn every cent out. The banks' assets are largely Greek loans, which many aren't paying -- why pay a mortgage to a banking concern that's already unopen too volition in all likelihood live out of describe organisation shortly anyway -- too Greek regime debt; generally Treasury bills that solely curl over because banks concord them. They can't sell either, thence the banks volition instantly live out of cash.

The bargain reported inwards today's papers actually barely mentions that problem. But that is the occupation of the hour.


Hellenic Republic is basically off the euro now. Being inwards the euro does non hateful that restaurants receive got euros. Being inwards the eurozone way that banks utilisation euros, that you lot tin receive got euros out too adapt international transfers using euros.

The economic scheme is paralyzed. The principal thing a bargain needs is a manner to reopen banks inwards a affair of days. Privatization too project laws are fine, exactly that generates increment a twelvemonth from at nowadays at best. And raising taxes? They must live kidding.

I've read alongside involvement to a greater extent than or less proposals that the European Union receive got over the banks. The European Union takes on the bad assets, gives or sells the residuum to large international banks, too these operate nether European Union rules -- non Greek regulators; they can't purchase whatsoever Greek debt, too Hellenic Republic can't taxation them.  It's expensive, yes, exactly it's basically every bit shoot-the-hostage approach. Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 performance economic scheme would assistance Greek finances. And too thence the European Union tin allow the Greek regime default if it wishes.  Saving the banks mightiness live a lot cheaper than saving the Greek regime too the banks.

There are 2 master sins inwards the euro, neither having to create alongside financial union. The offset is that each province has its ain banks, too each regime uses its banks every bit piggybanks to materials alongside regime debt. European banking concern regulators too Basel regulations process sovereign debt every bit opportunity free. Then, if the regime defaults, the whole banking organisation is dragged downward alongside it. The 2d is the endlessly repeated fallacy that regime default way the province must alter the units of its currency. If Chicago defaults on its debts, nobody thinks it must innovate a novel currency, or that Chicago's banks volition fail.

Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 currency nuptials needs a banking union, or at to the lowest degree banks that are non stuffed alongside regime debt. Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 currency nuptials needs to allow sovereigns default without changing currencies or paralyzing the banking too payments system. Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 currency nuptials needs a banking union.

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