Can Greece Leave?
Is Grexit fifty-fifty possible?
It strikes me that the best Hellenic Republic tin sack practise amongst a Drachma is to practise a two-currency system, split upwards of similar Republic of Cuba or Venezuela, or at best Argentina; countries whose politics the Greek authorities seems to admire, as well as whose economies its may shortly resemble.
If the authorities brings dorsum the Drachma as a trend to pay pensions, authorities salaries, as well as banking concern accounts, Euros volition nonetheless circulate inward Greece.
18% of Greek gross domestic product is tourism. That release may live on understated -- I don't know if it includes tourist spending at restaurants, stores, transport, as well as other places that mix tourists as well as locals. Tourists volition pass Euros, non Drachmas. So hotels, gas stations, restaurants, grocery stores, wearing clothing stores, airlines, auto rentals, etc. volition probable nonetheless gladly accept euros as well as euro credit cards, as well as from locals too every bit tourists.
I looked upwards Greek gross domestic product at the OECD. Of 157 billion euros value added, agriculture is a tiny 6, manufacture 18, of which manufacturing 13. However, services are 130, 80% of the total. Here, the big items are "distribution, trade, repairs, shipping accommodation as well as food" 41, existent estate activities 34, as well as populace direction 39. Exports as well as imports are each virtually lx out of 180 billion euros.
Now, anyone exporting -- lx out of 157 -- has access to euros as well as probable invoice inward euros give thank y'all you real much. Anyone importing volition postulate to larn their hands on those euros.
(Interestingly most exports are services, most imports are goods. I can't larn a guide hold on what services Hellenic Republic exports, as well as so whether devaluation would brand much difference.)
The 41 billion of "distribution, trade, repairs, shipping accommodation as well as food" services volition sure accept euros every bit above, to convenience the tourist trade. I can't fathom how 34 billion euros are existent estate services -- non structure -- as well as then I can't jurist actually if that is euros or Drachmas. The 39 billion of populace direction gets Drachmas.
So, the Drachmaized Hellenic Republic that I come across is non the cleanly devalued newly competitive powerhouse that closed to on the left seem to envision. Instead I come across a two-currency economy. Pensioners as well as authorities workers as well as anyone unlucky plenty to nonetheless get got a Greek banking concern delineate of piece of occupation concern human relationship larn Drachmas. Hotel owners, eating seat owners, as well as exporters larn euros, to a higher house or nether the table.
In this scenario, I can't imagine a freely convertible currency. Will the authorities actually give 100 Drachmas to mortal who used to larn 100 Euros, amongst an telephone commutation charge per unit of measurement below half? The signal of non cutting salaries was political. So nosotros are almost certain to come across working capital alphabetic quality controls, telephone commutation controls, as well as a fictional overvalued telephone commutation rate, as well as then Hellenic Republic tin sack pretend to pay pensioners as well as authorities workers.
It's non a pretty thought. Sticking amongst the euro seems a far improve option, only similar sticking amongst the meter.
It strikes me that the best Hellenic Republic tin sack practise amongst a Drachma is to practise a two-currency system, split upwards of similar Republic of Cuba or Venezuela, or at best Argentina; countries whose politics the Greek authorities seems to admire, as well as whose economies its may shortly resemble.
If the authorities brings dorsum the Drachma as a trend to pay pensions, authorities salaries, as well as banking concern accounts, Euros volition nonetheless circulate inward Greece.
18% of Greek gross domestic product is tourism. That release may live on understated -- I don't know if it includes tourist spending at restaurants, stores, transport, as well as other places that mix tourists as well as locals. Tourists volition pass Euros, non Drachmas. So hotels, gas stations, restaurants, grocery stores, wearing clothing stores, airlines, auto rentals, etc. volition probable nonetheless gladly accept euros as well as euro credit cards, as well as from locals too every bit tourists.
I looked upwards Greek gross domestic product at the OECD. Of 157 billion euros value added, agriculture is a tiny 6, manufacture 18, of which manufacturing 13. However, services are 130, 80% of the total. Here, the big items are "distribution, trade, repairs, shipping accommodation as well as food" 41, existent estate activities 34, as well as populace direction 39. Exports as well as imports are each virtually lx out of 180 billion euros.
Now, anyone exporting -- lx out of 157 -- has access to euros as well as probable invoice inward euros give thank y'all you real much. Anyone importing volition postulate to larn their hands on those euros.
(Interestingly most exports are services, most imports are goods. I can't larn a guide hold on what services Hellenic Republic exports, as well as so whether devaluation would brand much difference.)
The 41 billion of "distribution, trade, repairs, shipping accommodation as well as food" services volition sure accept euros every bit above, to convenience the tourist trade. I can't fathom how 34 billion euros are existent estate services -- non structure -- as well as then I can't jurist actually if that is euros or Drachmas. The 39 billion of populace direction gets Drachmas.
So, the Drachmaized Hellenic Republic that I come across is non the cleanly devalued newly competitive powerhouse that closed to on the left seem to envision. Instead I come across a two-currency economy. Pensioners as well as authorities workers as well as anyone unlucky plenty to nonetheless get got a Greek banking concern delineate of piece of occupation concern human relationship larn Drachmas. Hotel owners, eating seat owners, as well as exporters larn euros, to a higher house or nether the table.
In this scenario, I can't imagine a freely convertible currency. Will the authorities actually give 100 Drachmas to mortal who used to larn 100 Euros, amongst an telephone commutation charge per unit of measurement below half? The signal of non cutting salaries was political. So nosotros are almost certain to come across working capital alphabetic quality controls, telephone commutation controls, as well as a fictional overvalued telephone commutation rate, as well as then Hellenic Republic tin sack pretend to pay pensioners as well as authorities workers.
It's non a pretty thought. Sticking amongst the euro seems a far improve option, only similar sticking amongst the meter.
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